QuickTake: Volatility and Conflict as of March 2, 2026

Equitable Investment Management

From the desk of:

Kenneth T. Kozlowski, CFP, CLU, ChFC Chief Investment Officer

Over the weekend, global markets were rattled by a sharp escalation in the Middle East after coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory actions across the region. The conflict raised immediate concerns around energy supply disruptions, global oil flows and the risk of a broader regional confrontation. As markets reopened, investors moved quickly into risk‑off positioning.

Initial market reactions:

  • Global equity futures sold off, with U.S. and international markets opening lower as investors repriced geopolitical risk. Cyclical and consumer‑sensitive sectors have been volatility, while defense and energy have so far showed relative resilience.
  • Oil prices spiked sharply, with Brent crude and WTI jumping up between 6-7% on fears of supply disruptions and higher shipping and insurance costs, reinforcing inflation concerns.
  • Gold and silver reactions remain muted, while volatility indicators such as the VIX climbed, signaling heightened near‑term uncertainty.
  • Interest rates have moved higher around the world as increasing oil and natural gas prices drive inflation concerns.
  • The USD rallied sharply higher which has been an additional headwind to international assets.

How strategists are framing it— JPMorgan strategists expect a near‑term risk‑off move, but note that historically, geopolitical shocks often create fear and volatility but not necessarily lasting market damage, especially for investors with a medium‑term horizon. The firm’s broader 2026 outlook highlights geopolitics as a key driver of volatility but reinforces the case for diversified, multi‑asset portfolios rather than concentrated risk positions.

BlackRock echoes this view, emphasizing that geopolitical fragmentation is now a structural feature of markets, not a temporary anomaly. In this environment, returns are increasingly uneven across regions and sectors, making diversification across equities, real assets, and select alternatives more important than relying on a single macro outcome.

What this means for investors— Periods like this can feel unsettling, but history suggests that markets often stabilize once the range of possible outcomes becomes clearer. Volatility is a reminder—not a signal—to reassess portfolio balance. Diversification across asset classes, regions, and risk factors can help cushion short‑term shocks while keeping investors positioned for longer‑term opportunities. As Equitable Investment Management investment professionals have always firmly believed, disciplined diversification and a long‑term perspective remain essential tools for navigating markets shaped by geopolitical uncertainty. Even amid a busy week of economic data and evolving global developments, maintaining perspective and discipline may help investors navigate near‑term volatility without losing sight of long‑term goals.

Market observations as of the week of 3/2/2026 and subject to change. Not to be used, or interpreted, as investment advice or recommendation.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Definitions:

S&P 500 Index is a weighted index of common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75% coverage of U.S. equities. The index is capitalization weighted, thereby giving greater weight to companies with the largest market capitalizations.

Russell 1000® Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000® Index companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. It is market-capitalization weighted.

A basis point (BPS) is a unit of measure used to indicate percentage changes in financial instruments. Basis points are typically expressed with the abbreviations "bp," "bps," or "bips." One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%. In decimal form, one basis point appears as 0.0001 (0.01/100).

Information provided in this newsletter is general in nature, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) as of the stated date of their contribution and any such views and opinions are subject to change at any time based on market, or other conditions, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Securities and sectors referenced should not be construed as a solicitation or recommendation, or be used as the sole basis for any investment decision.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Portfolio re-balancing and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protection against loss in a declining market.

No guarantee or representation is made that investment objectives and/or opinions stated will be achieved. The experience of each specific client or investor may vary.

Due to the subjective aspect of these analyses, the effective evolution of the economic variables and values of the financial markets could be significantly different from the projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypotheses, which are communicated in this material.

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GE-8762887.1 (02/2026) (Exp. 02/2030)